june@lemmy.worldtoShowerthoughts@lemmy.world•The Gambler's Fallacy makes sense logically, but it feels so wrong emotionally.English
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7 months agoThey’re really not.
They’re really not.
No. Taking it to the extreme with 100 doors, your first pick was a 1% chance to get the car. The host then shows you 98 other doors that all have goats.
What’s more likely? That you picked the right door when it was 100:1? Or that the other door is the one with the car?
Your first paragraph made it click. Thanks!
Oh that’s so weird. I get it from a proof perspective but it feels very wrong.
My brain tells me it’s two separate scenarios where the first choice was 99:1 and after eliminating 98 there’s a new equation that makes it 50:50.
87% shitposts I bet lol
But really, that’s a cool landmark.
You had a good mom.